Guys, I’m willing to bet at least one of you reading this right now is thinking: “Aiya, did I already miss the bottom?”
Let me address that directly. But first, the news.
It’s official - US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. And if you’ve been watching the headlines, you already know both sides are claiming they won. Iran says the US suffered a historic defeat. Trump says it’s all part of the negotiation.
Here’s the quick summary of what’s actually in the statement: ceasefire is in place, Iran keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment continues, all sanctions get lifted, US combat forces pull out of the region, and the US pays compensation to Iran.
Worth noting: there are actually two statements floating around right now, and I’m attaching both her:
Trump posted the Iranian Foreign Minister’s statement as the “official” one:
Iran's own statement calls it "an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat" for the US:
Will Trump do anything about Iran’s statement to protect his pride? Who knows. For now at least for the next two weeks, it looks like things will be calmer.
Did You Miss The Bottom?
Here’s the real, honest truth. Nobody knows. Not Trump, not Goldman Sachs, not me. And honestly? Anyone who tells you they know/predicted it is bullsh*tting you.
The ceasefire is real, but so is the risk that talks break down and things get rough again fast. Retesting recent lows is just as likely as rallying from here. I’m not going to pretend otherwise.
What I do want to share is this: three completely separate data signals are all quietly pointing in the same direction. And I think it’s worth paying attention to.
Signal 1: The Fear & Green Index
The CNN Fear and Greed Index tracks seven real market inputs, things like put/call ratios, safe haven demand, and market momentum. We’re currently sitting at 22. One week ago it was 13. One month ago, 25.
When it’s at these levels, it means institutional and retail money are both pulling away from risk at the same time.
What does history say about a reading like that?
March 2009, near the GFC bottom: index around 5. S&P up 68% in the next 12 months.
March 2020, COVID: index hit 12. S&P up 56% the year after.
October 2022, rate hike bear market: index hit 2. S&P gained 24% over the following 12 months.
Research from 2011 to 2025 shows that buying when this index is below 20 has historically put you in the green after 12 months, in the vast majority of cases.
Signal 2: AAII Bearish Sentiment Survey
The American Association of Individual Investors has been polling retail investors every week since 1987, asking one simple question: are you bullish, neutral, or bearish on markets over the next six months?
It just crossed above 54% bearish, after staying below that level for at least nine months. Every time this has happened historically, the S&P was positive 12 months later 75% of the time. Average gain in those instances: around 14%.
Signal 3: Volatility Index (VIX)
The VIX is the market’s fear gauge. When it’s high, people are scared and paying up for protection. When it falls, fear is starting to exhaust itself.
We’re currently at 25.66, and it just dropped below 25 after sitting above it for at least eight consecutive days. When this pattern has shown up since 1990, the S&P was positive 12 months later 76% of the time.
What To Do With These Signals
Three signals. Three completely different sources. All historically associated with above-average forward returns.
However, none of these signals tell you the bottom is in. None of them stop the market from going lower next week. What they tell you is that the risk-reward for long-term investors is starting to shift.
And that brings me back to the original question.
Even if you missed the bottom, it kind of doesn’t matter as much as you think.
Trying to nail the exact bottom is like catching a falling knife at the perfect point. Even if you get it right once, you cannot do it consistently. The investors who waited for the “all-clear” in 2020, in 2022, in 2025 all missed the best part of the recovery. The all-clear never comes before the move.
For me personally, I’m dollar-cost averaging (DCA) slowly into high quality, undervalued names. Names that have growing earnings, real cash flow, strong balance sheets, and durable competitive advantages. Businesses that were great before this started and will still be great when it ends.
You know what’s the best part? If the market goes lower, I buy more at a cheaper price. If it recovers, I’m already in.
Win-win.
DCA removes the emotional decision from the equation, and in an environment where every week brings a new headline that can move markets 2% in either direction, removing emotion is the edge.
The Bigger Picture
Every major shock in modern market history felt, in the middle of it, like this time would be different.
Korean War. Cuban Missile Crisis. Gulf War. September 11. GFC. COVID.
Every single one felt unsurvivable when you were inside it. Every single one, markets eventually moved through and beyond.
The businesses worth owning aren’t priced on the next six weeks. They’re priced on the next ten years. And right now, some of them are available at prices that make that ten-year journey genuinely compelling.
So maybe the better question isn’t “did I miss the bottom?”
Maybe it’s: am I buying quality, and am I patient enough to let it work?
If the answer is yes to both, the exact entry point matters a lot less than you think.
One More Thing
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*Terms and conditions apply. ^Other fees apply. ⁺Interest Boost Coupons applied to Longbridge Cash Plus subscriptions only.This content is a paid partnership with Longbridge Singapore. Everything I share here are my personal views, not Longbridge’s. I’m sharing this for general awareness only, not financial advice.
Investing comes with risks, and I could lose money. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, so do your own research or speak to a professional if needed. This ad hasn’t been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Patience builds wealth,Bjorn